Andjelka Kelic
Andjelka Kelic: System Dynamics Modeling of Fiber-to-the-Home
Whitepaper Overview
The study of the standards and technologies for fiber-to-the-home is part of a larger research project examining networking technology adoption. The project involves creating a system dynamics model for use in scenario-based analysis of the interactions of suppliers, consumers, technological development, and regulators in fiber-to-the-home deployment.
Fiber-to-the-home was chosen as a case study for networking technology adoption because it is a technology that is still in the early stages of development and deployment. There is no dominant technology and change is still possible. Fiber-to-the-home also brings with it the many policy related issues associated with the Internet and with telecommunications in general. An understanding of how key factors interact and how different adoption rates can be brought about is crucial to deploying this technology in a way that will encourage user adoption.
System dynamics modeling was chosen as a methodology for the analysis because one of its key features is the ability to explore "what if" scenarios and complex interactions. Through the use of graphical tools for implementing differential equation the system dynamics model attempts to capture key behaviors that are observed in the real world system. It allows the modeler to see what structures in the real world might cause an observed behavior -- adoption rates are observed to increase, what is causing it? The model also allows the observation of what types of behaviors a structure in the real world can produce -- how can adoption rates be made to increase or decrease? This information is useful in analyzing how public policy changes could influence user adoption. Read More...
Other CTR Related publications by Andjelka Kelic:
CTR Summary, Networking Technology Adoption Research Project
FTTH Deployment and the Optoelectronics Industry
Networking Technology Adoption: System Dynamics Modeling of Fiber-to-the-Home
